10-11 February 2000: Mountain snows (also plains and DCVZ event).
Forecast Research Division
On this page is a collection of fairly detailed case studies presented to document how the local model, the SFM in this case, performs in the area of northeastern Colorado for a variety of weather phenomenon.
I. Winter snow events.
10-11 February 2000: Mountain snows (also plains and DCVZ event).
Quick look at the verification/comparison: SFM 15z/10 Feb run had more snow in zone 34 than in zone 33 (where there was very little predicted), whereas snow model had slightly more in 33 vs. 34. More did tend to fall in 33, and even MORE fell just to the east with Virginia Dale the big winner with 13.5" (this band extended e across the plains, with zones 49/50 getting 6-8" of snow (some of this coming after 12z however). SFM did pick up on an e-w band onto the plains near the CO/WY border, tho also had one e from COS and this srn one did NOT occur. A separate snow max does exist near Virginia Dale in the SFM; R/T model (Rhea/Thaler orographic snow model) had nothing to up to an inch for Virginia Dale/Zone 35.
So, mixed results, would say that it appears the 15z SFM did not do quite as well with the mountain snows, since it erroneously favored the more srn over the more nrn mtns.
More info:
obs, forecasts, discussions, etc.
Observations: 1200 through 2100 UTC on 10 Feb
Figure 1: Denver 1200 UTC 10 Feb sounding.
Figure 2: Grand Junction 1200 UTC 10 Feb sounding.
Figure 3: 500 mb analysis from the RUC for 1800 UTC 10 Feb, with 1200 UTC
RAOB plot and 1800 UTC water vapor image and profiler plot.
Figure 4: 700 mb analysis from the RUC for 1800 UTC 10 Feb.
Figure 5: Visible satellite image with METARS and lightning plot for 2100 UTC 10 Feb.
Figure 6: NOWRAD state-scale image with METARS and lightning plot for 2100 UTC 10 Feb.
Forecasts from the 1500 SFM run and 1200 UTC local 10 km eta run thru 0000 UTC/11 Feb.
Figure 7: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 6h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 2100 UTC 10 Feb.
Figure 8: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 9h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 0000 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 9: 10 km Local Eta 1200 UTC 10 Feb run, 12h forecast of sfc wind/temperature
and total precipitation valid 0000 UTC 11 Feb.
Some observations through 0000 UTC on 11 Feb.
Figure 10: 500 mb height analysis from the Eta for 0000 UTC 11 Feb, with
RAOB plot and IR satellite image.
Figure 11: 700 mb height analysis from the Eta for 0000 UTC 11 Feb, with
RAOB plot and IR satellite image.
Figure 12: Denver 0000 UTC 11 Feb sounding.
Figure 13: Grand Junction 0000 UTC 11 Feb sounding.
Another set of forecasts valid thru 1200 UTC/11 Feb.
First more forecasts from the 1500 UTC 10 Feb SFM run.
Figure 14: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 15h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 0600 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 15: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 17h forecast of storm total snowfall through
0800 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 16: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 18h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 0900 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 17: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 18h forecast of storm total precipitation through
0900 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 18: SFM 1500 UTC 10 Feb run, 18h forecast of storm total snow through
0900 UTC 11 Feb.
The local 10 km eta run from 0000 UTC 11 Feb:
Figure 19: 10 km Local Eta 0000 UTC 11 Feb run, 12h forecast of sfc wind/temperature
and total precipitation valid 1200 UTC 11 Feb.
Forecasts from the 2100 SFM run from 10 Feb.
Figure 20: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 12h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 0900 UTC 11 Feb, with NOWRAD overlaid.
Figure 21: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 12h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity
valid 0900 UTC 11 Feb, with NOWRAD and METARS overlaid.
Figure 22: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 12h forecast of storm total snow through
0900 UTC 11 Feb (compare to Figure 14, valid at the same time, from the 1500 UTC run).
Figure 23: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 15h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity
valid 1200 UTC 11 Feb, with NOWRAD and METARS and other obs overlaid. Note the good forecast of a
strong Denver Cyclone circulation.
Figure 24: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 15h forecast of storm total precipitation through
1200 UTC 11 Feb.
Figure 25: SFM 2100 UTC 10 Feb run, 15h forecast of storm total snow through
1200 UTC 11 Feb.
One forecast from the 0300 SFM run from 11 Feb.
Figure 26: SFM 0300 UTC 11 Feb run, 9h forecast of 700 mb wind and reflectivity
valid 1200 UTC 11 Feb, with NOWRAD overlaid.
Here are some observations through 1200 UTC on 11 Feb.
Figure 27: NOWRAD imagery for 0930 UTC 11 Feb with METAR and 1h lightning plot for 0900 UTC.
Figure 28: 500 mb height analysis from the Eta for 1200 UTC 11 Feb, with
RAOB plot and IR satellite image.
Figure 29: 700 mb height analysis from the Eta for 1200 UTC 11 Feb, with
RAOB plot and IR satellite image.
Figure 30: Denver 1200 UTC 11 Feb sounding.
Figure 31: Grand Junction 1200 UTC 11 Feb sounding.
14 February 2000: Mountain snows.
More info:
obs, forecasts, discussions, etc.
Figure 1: FSL's 10 km eta (initialized with LAPS), 1200 UTC 14 Feb run, 12h wind
and total precipitation forecast for 0000 UTC 15 Feb.
Figure 2: 10 km eta 0000 UTC 15 Feb run, 12h wind and total precipitation forecast
for 1200 UTC 15 Feb.
17 February 2000: Potential mountain snows.
More info:
obs, forecasts, discussions, etc.
Figure 1: SFM 2100 UTC run from 16 Feb, 13h forecast valid 1000 UTC 17 Feb of
of 700 mb wind and reflectivity, overlaid with NOWRAD observed reflectivity.
Figure 2: SFM 2100 UTC run from 16 Feb, storm total snowfall and storm total precipitation for 13h period ending 1000 UTC 17 Feb.
Figure 3: SFM 0300 UTC run from 16 Feb, storm total snowfall and storm total precipitation for 9h period
ending 1200 UTC 17 Feb, along with 700 mb wind and SFM reflectivity ending at 1200 UTC,
overlaid with NOWRAD reflectivity.
Figure 4:
700 mb plot and heights with water vapor satellite image for 1200 UTC 17 Feb.
Figure 5:
Grand Junction sounding for 1200 UTC 17 Feb.
7 March 2000: Potential mountain snows.
More stuff: Text saved data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: RUC 2100 UTC run from 7 March, 6h 500 mb forecast valid 0300 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 2: RUC 2100 UTC run from 7 March, 6h 700 mb forecast valid 0300 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 3: RUC 2100 UTC run from 7 March, 6h surface forecast valid 0300 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 4: RUC 2100 UTC run from 7 March, 12h 700 mb forecast valid 0900 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 5: RUC 2100 UTC run from 7 March, 12h surface forecast valid 0900 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 6: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total precipitation for 9h period ending 0000 UTC 8 Mar,
with surface wind and reflectivity at 0000 UTC.
Figure 7: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total snowfall for 9h period ending 0000 UTC 8 Mar, along with
700 mb wind for 0000 UTC.
Figure 8: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total precipitation for 9h period ending 0000 UTC 8 Mar,
with surface wind and reflectivity at 0000 UTC.
Figure 9: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total precipitation for 12h period ending 0300 UTC 8 Mar,
with surface wind and reflectivity at 0300 UTC.
Figure 10: NOWRAD state scale reflectivity with obs for 0300 UTC on 8 March.
Figure 11: NOWRAD state scale reflectivity with obs for 0600 UTC on 8 March.
Figure 12: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total precipitation for 18h period ending 0900 UTC 8 Mar,
with surface wind and reflectivity at 0900 UTC.
Figure 13: SFM 1500 UTC run from 7 March, storm total snow for 18h period ending 0900 UTC 8 Mar.
Figure 14: NOWRAD state scale reflectivity with obs for 0900 UTC on 8 March.
Figure 15: NOWRAD state scale reflectivity with obs for 1200 UTC on 8 March.
Figure 16: NOWRAD state scale reflectivity with obs for 1500 UTC on 8 March.
10 March 2000: Potential very heavy foothill snows.
Why the focused snowfall? Surface pattern on the plains was a Longmont Anticyclone in the SFM forecast, so low-level winds were converging into the foothills from the east, whereas there was NWly flow from the west that would serve to enhance the convergence even further. Couple this with a fairly unstable atmosphere, and the ingredients were set (at least in the model) for a persistent area of convective snows. What happened? Need to get more info, but there was never any snow in Boulder, and basically none in the foothills either. The snowfall farther west in the NWly flow was probably a pretty good forecast.
More stuff: Text saved data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: SFM 18h reflectivity forecast from 03z 10 Mar run, valid 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 2: SFM 18h total snow forecast from 03z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 3: SFM 6h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 15z 10 Mar.
Figure 4: SFM 9h reflectivity forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 18z 10 Mar.
Figure 5: SFM 9h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 18z 10 Mar.
Figure 6: SFM 9h sounding forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 18z 10 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 7: SFM 12h reflectivity forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 8: SFM 12h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 9: SFM 12h sounding forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 21z 10 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 10: SFM 13h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 22z 10 Mar.
Figure 11: SFM 15h reflectivity forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 00z 11 Mar.
Figure 12: SFM 15h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 00z 11 Mar.
Figure 13: SFM 15h sounding forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid 00z 11 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 14: SFM 18h total snow forecast from 09z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 03z 11 Mar.
Figure 15: Eta 10 km 6h total precipitation and surface wind and temperature forecast from 12z
10 March run, valid 18z 10 March.
Figure 16: Eta 10 km 6h sounding forecast from 12z 10 March run, valid 18z 10 March at Boulder.
Figure 17: Eta 10 km 12h total precipitation and surface wind and temperature forecast from 12z
10 March run, valid 00z 11 March.
Figure 18: Eta 10 km 12h sounding forecast from 12z 10 March run, valid 00z 11 March at Boulder.
Figure 19: Eta (standard resolution) 12h surface forecast from 12z 10 March run, valid 00z 11 March.
Figure 20: Eta (standard resolution) 12h sounding forecast from 12z 10 March run, valid 00z 11 March at Boulder,
overlaid with SFM 15z run 9h forecast sounding.
Figure 21: SFM 3h reflectivity forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 18z 10 Mar.
Figure 22: SFM 3h total snow forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 18z 10 Mar.
Figure 23: SFM 3h sounding forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 18z 10 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 24: SFM 6h reflectivity forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 25: SFM 6h total snow forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 21z 10 Mar.
Figure 26: SFM 6h sounding forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 21z 10 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 27: SFM 9h reflectivity forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 00z 11 Mar.
Figure 28: SFM 9h total snow forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid for period ending 00z 11 Mar.
Figure 29: SFM 9h sounding forecast from 15z 10 Mar run, valid 00z 11 Mar at Boulder.
Figure 30: LAPS surface analysis with METARS and visible image for 18z 10 March.
Figure 31: WFO-scale 0.5 deg radar reflectivity with METARS for 00z 11 March.
12 March 2000: Significant but underforecast orographically forced mountain snows.
Unfortunately did not save the critical SFM runs, which would be the 15z or 21z runs from 11 March. May try to rerun this case.
More stuff: Text saved data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: SFM 18h total snow forecast from 09z 12 Mar run, valid for period ending 03z 13 Mar.
Figure 2: SFM 9h total snow forecast from 15z 12 Mar run, valid for period ending 00z 13 Mar.
Figure 3: 500 mb analysis for 12z 12 March.
Figure 4: 700 mb analysis for 12z 12 March.
Figure 5: GJT 12z 12 March sounding.
Figure 6: State-scale visible satellite image with METARS for 18z 12 March.
Figure 7: PTL profiler time series for 12h ending 00z 13 March.
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6 November 2000: Potential snow with a Longmont Anticyclone
Saved the 1800 UTC runs of the hot-start MM5 and the Mesoeta.
More stuff: Text saved data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: MM5 1800 UTC run 0 h surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with obs and NOWRAD.
Notice how the MM5 initial wind field nicely matches the observations showing the lighter winds
with different directions near Boulder County, as would be expected since it initialized with LAPS.
Figure 2: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run 0 h surface wind, overlaid with obs and NOWRAD.
The match of the winds with the obs is not nearly as good as with MM5 at 0 h.
Figure 3: 0 h surface winds from MM5 and the Mesoeta overlaid for direct comparison. These are
displayed at maximum resolution, which for the AWIPS display is 20 km for the Mesoeta (even though the
model's maximum resolution is actually 22 km), so there are 2 wind barbs from MM5 for every Mesoeta wind.
Figure 4: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with obs and NOWRAD, valid
for 2100 UTC.
Figure 5: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run 3 h surface wind and 3-h accumulated precipitation, overlaid with obs and
NOWRAD, valid for 2100 UTC.
Figure 6: 3 h surface winds from MM5 and the Mesoeta overlaid for direct comparison.
Figure 7: MM5 1800 UTC run 6 h surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with obs and NOWRAD, valid
for 0000 UTC on 7 November 2000.
Figure 8: Closeup of Figure 7 zooming in along the Front Range. Neither model turns the winds as
much as observed (see the se flow at BJC, for example).
Figure 9: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run 6 h surface wind and 3-h accumulated precipitation, overlaid with obs and
NOWRAD, valid for 0000 UTC on 7 November 2000.
Figure 10: Comparison of 6 h forecast from Mesoeta and MM5 18z runs for the Longmont Anticyclone.
Figure 11: MM5 1800 UTC run 7 h surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with obs and CYS radar, valid
for 0100 UTC on 7 November 2000.
Figure 12: MM5 1800 UTC run 7 h surface wind and reflectivity with storm total precipitation forecast,
overlaid with obs and DEN (KFTG) radar, valid for 0100 UTC on 7 November 2000.
Figure 13: Closeup of Figure 12 (but without winds). Most of the precipitation was forecast for the
foothills, especially west of Boulder, whereas it turned out that most fell in the southern and western Denver
suburbs.
Figure 14: Closeup of MM5 1800 UTC run 9 h forecast of reflectivity and storm total precipitation forecast
valid for 0300 UTC on 7 November 2000.
Figure 15: Closeup of MM5 1800 UTC run 12 h forecast of reflectivity and storm total precipitation forecast
valid for 0600 UTC on 7 November 2000. Note: a coop site near Nederland, where the max precipitation was forecast,
did not record any snowfall for this event.
15 November 2000: Potential plains snowfall associated with a Longmont Anticyclone as
well as mountain orographic snowfall.
Shortwave trough passage with synoptic NWly flow behind it, with potential for a LGM Anticyclone and of course mountain orographic snowfall. In this case the NWlys tended to overwhelm any significant LGM Anticyclone, which was overpredicted by the model runs. A nice snowband did occur on the plains but appeared to be at the leading edge of the trough and surge of NWly low level flow, and proceeded to move from near the foothills at 13-14 UTC to vicinity of AKO by ~1800 UTC. This band was not predicted very well by the 1200 UTC MM5 run, while with the hot start the 1800 UTC run nicely captured it and held it together for awhile as it continued east (while diminishing in real life), about as forecast.
In the mountains good snowfall occurred commencing probably ~1000 UTC on 15 Nov, with most of it probably over by the evening of the 15 Nov. Both runs tended to underforecast the amount of snowfall, but appeared to do a decent job with distribution, with Steamboat (12" for 24 h ending 16 Nov at 1200 UTC) and Vail (10" for similar) getting by far the most.
Overview and data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: MM5 initialization at 1200 UTC for surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 2: MM5 1200 UTC run 3 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar,
valid 1500 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 3: MM5 1200 UTC run 6 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar
valid 1800 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 4: MM5 1200 UTC run 6 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 6 h period ending at
1800 UTC on 15 Nov 00.
Figure 5: MM5 initialization at 1800 UTC for surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 6: MM5 1200 UTC run 9 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, valid 2100 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 7: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar,
valid 2100 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 8: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 3 h period ending at
2100 UTC on 15 Nov 00.
Figure 9: METAR observations and NOWRAD radar valid at 2100 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 10: MM5 1800 UTC run 5 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar
valid 2300 UTC 15 Nov.
Figure 11: MM5 1200 UTC run 5 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 5 h period ending at
2300 UTC on 15 Nov 00.
Figure 12: MM5 1200 UTC run 12 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, valid 0000 UTC 16 Nov.
Figure 13: MM5 1800 UTC run 6 h forecast of 700 mb wind and storm total precipitation and snowfall,
valid at 0000 UTC 16 Nov.
Figure 14: MM5 1200 UTC run 12 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 12 h period ending at
0000 UTC on 16 Nov 00.
Figure 15: METAR observations and NOWRAD radar valid at 0000 UTC 16 Nov.
Figure 16: DEN sounding for 0000 UTC 16 Nov.
Figure 17: MM5 1200 UTC run 15 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity, valid 0300 UTC 16 Nov.
Figure 18: MM5 1200 UTC run 24 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 24 h period ending at
1200 UTC on 16 Nov 00. Overall, the mountain snowfall was underforecast, while snowfall associated with the Longmont
Anticyclone (zone 39, for example) was overforecast.
Figure 19: MM5 1800 UTC run 18 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall, for 18 h period ending at
1200 UTC on 16 Nov 00. Probably a better forecast than the 1200 UTC run farther east on the plains, capturing the
area of snow associated with the shortwave trough, but still having a band with the LGM Anticyclone that was not there.
While it is not possible to know how much snow fell during the 1200-1800 UTC period on 15 Nov in the mountains, it looks
like this run did not do as well as the 1200 UTC run, with both underforecasting mountain snowfall for this event.
Figure 20: Closeup of MM5 1800 UTC run 18 h forecast of storm total precipitation and snowfall,
for 18 h period ending at 1200 UTC on 16 Nov 00.
Figure 21: Closeup with cities overlay of MM5 1800 UTC run 18 h forecast of storm total precipitation and
snowfall, for 18 h period ending at 1200 UTC on 16 Nov 00. Note there is a max of snowfall near Steamboat, where
12" in 24 h ending at 1200 UTC/16 Nov fell. The forecast is only for a max of 1.5", but it may be fair to subtract
~6" from the 24 h snowfall total (based on the ~2 pm snow report on 15 Nov) at Steamboat to get a comparitive ob of
~6". So while still a substantial underforecast, at least the max in location had the right idea.
17 November 2000: Quick snow event with a northerly surge (Longmont Anticyclone) and
shortwave trough in the northerly flow; also mountain orographic snowfall.
What happened was a burst of snow began ~23z locally and quickly became at least moderate snow here, with a good burst of nely winds producing some blowing snow. By ~715 pm had accumulated ~3.5" here in the parking lot, but when I got home at ~730pm could only measure 1.5", so quite an extreme dropoff with distance east of the foothills. Heaviest accumulations were in fact in the foothills themselves of zone 36, with up to 8" near Tiny Town. Note how Allenspark had less than an inch. One thing about the snow was it had very low liquid water content; at least 20:1 or higher, so in effect some model predictions were not far off from that perspective.
Saved the 18z run of both the hot-start MM5 and the Mesoeta. Most of the snow fell here in BOU from 23z/17th to 04z/18th.
In terms of the mountains, both models predicted a rather light event, and generally only an inch or two fell, with Eldora getting 3" (upslope from the east there probably responsible for most of this).
Overview and data (forecasts, obs, etc.).
Figure 1: MM5 initialization at 1800 UTC for surface wind and reflectivity, overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 2: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run, 0 h surface and 700 mb wind with observations. While not a "bad" surface wind
analysis, the MM5 analysis fits the observations better (as might be expected since it uses LAPS).
Figure 3: MM5 1800 UTC run 1 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 1900 UTC,
overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 4: MM5 1800 UTC run 2 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 2000 UTC,
overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 5: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 2100 UTC,
overlaid with observations and radar.
Figure 6: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h forecast of total precipitation and snowfall, ending 2100 UTC.
Figure 7: MM5 1800 UTC run 3 h forecast of 700 mb wind and surface reflectivity, overlaid with 700 mb profiler
wind plot and NOWRAD, for 2100 UTC.
Figure 8: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run, 3 h surface and snow accumulation forecast, with observations.
Figure 9: MM5 1800 UTC run 4 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 2200 UTC,
overlaid with observations and radar (CYS and DEN radar combined image).
Figure 9a: Same as Figure 8 but with radar overlay of KFTG (Denver) radar only.
Figure 10: MM5 1800 UTC run 5 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 2300 UTC,
overlaid with observations and KFTG radar.
Figure 11: MM5 1800 UTC run 6 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 0000 UTC 18 November,
overlaid with observations and KFTG radar.
Figure 12: MM5 1800 UTC run 6 h forecast of total precipitation and snowfall, for 6 h ending 0000 UTC 18 November.
Figure 13: MM5 1800 UTC run 6 h forecast of 700 mb wind and surface reflectivity, overlaid with 700 mb profiler
wind plot and NOWRAD, for 0000 UTC 18 November.
Figure 14: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run, 6 h surface and snow accumulation forecast, with observations,
ending 0000 UTC 18 November.
Figure 15: MM5 1800 UTC run 7 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 0100 UTC 18 November,
overlaid with observations and KFTG radar.
Figure 16: MM5 1800 UTC run 9 h forecast of surface wind and reflectivity valid at 0300 UTC 18 November.
Figure 17: KFTG (Denver) low-level reflectivity image for 0300 UTC 18 November.
Figure 18: MM5 1800 UTC run 9 h forecast of total precipitation and snowfall, for 9 h ending 0300 UTC 18 November.
Figure 19: Mesoeta 1800 UTC run, 9 h surface wind, snow and 6-h precipitation accumulation forecast,
ending 0300 UTC 18 November.
Figure 20: MM5 1800 UTC run 9 h forecast of 700 mb wind with snow and 6-h precipitation accumulation forecast,
valid 0300 UTC 18 November.
Figure 21: MM5 1800 UTC run 12 h forecast of 700 mb wind with snow and 6-h precipitation accumulation forecast,
valid 0600 UTC 18 November.
Figure 22: KFTG (Denver) low-level reflectivity image for 0400 UTC 18 November.
Figure 23: KFTG (Denver) low-level reflectivity image for 0500 UTC 18 November.
Figure 24: KFTG (Denver) low-level reflectivity image for 0600 UTC 18 November.
Figure 25: KFTG (Denver) low-level reflectivity image for 1200 UTC 18 November.
Figure 26: PTL profiler time series ending at 0100 UTC on 18 November.
Figure 27: DEN sounding for 1200 UTC on 17 November.
Figure 28: DEN sounding for 0000 UTC on 18 November. Note the steep low-level lapse rate now present.
KFTG 2000_09_23_20z
KFTG 2000_09_23_2134z
KFTG 2000_09_23_23z
KFTG 2000_09_24_00z
KFTG 2000_09_24_01z
KFTG 2000_09_24_02z
KFTG 2000_09_24_03z
KFTG 2000_09_24_04z
KFTG 2000_09_24_05z
KFTG 2000_09_24_06z
KFTG 2000_09_24_0645z
KFTG 2000_09_24_11z
KFTG 2000_09_24_12z
snowfall
Snow Storm of 9 March, 1992 - Front Range of Colorado
![[Animated image of
the Front Range
storm - 9 Mar 92]](/laps-fsl/sm/mar9_ic_1h-sm2.gif)
(1.1 MB - 8 Image Animation)
Local Analysis and Prediction System (LAPS)
This figure depicts real-time
analyses of a storm that moved through the Colorado area on the
morning of 12 November 1993. These analyses were developed at the
NOAA
Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) in Boulder, Colorado.
LAPS Series of a Severe Thunderstorm on 12 July 1993, Colorado
LAPS analysis of a severe thunderstorm
which developed in northeastern Colorado on 12 July 1993.
[These figures were created by Paula McCaslin, Jerome Schmidt,
Craig Hartsough, and Phil McDonald of FSL and CIRA.]
Additional LAPS Information