WINDSOR - LAPS / STMAS Page

• Compare the accuracy of WRF forecasts initialized at different times to the Windsor tornado event (around 1800 UTC May 22). Make dprog/dt animations to illustrate how the forecasts converge on the actual weather, as depicted in the analyses.

• Verification will be conducted of fields such as radar reflectivity and wind. For radar reflectivity in particular, we have some quantitative verification software we can easily use. Also, it will be essential to validate the model analyses and forecasts against the special observations ( see Steve Koch's list ). This is probably the most important single scientific contribution that this study will make, given the uniqueness of these data for a study such as this.

• Compare the verification results using both LAPS and STMAS as analysis engines. There are several reasons to spend time looking at this, including the internal need we have at GSD to better understand the performance of the two analysis options, but also because we are advocating a process for replacing LAPS by STMAS in an operational framework supportive of the Forecast Offices and we need to make a much stronger case for doing that.

• LAPS/STMAS will be run with both routinely archived Mass Store observational data plus as many "special" datasets as we can gather and read into the analyses.

• WRF forecasts and LAPS/STMAS analyses will be run on both a revised domain at a resolution of ~5km (as we discussed last time), with an inner domain at 1-1.5km.

Reflectivity: 20dbz ETS | 20dbz Bias | 30dbz ETS | 30dbz Bias | 40dbz ETS | 40dbz Bias
Other: | TPW | 11-micron | Surface Wind | 3-D Wind | Run Total Precip

Here is the Windsor observational data and a description of the datasets and their origins. You might be able to download the entire tree using the following command:

Related Links:

Dan's Satellite Slides
CSU study
U Wyo study
ESRL study: Part 1 , Part 2
ESRL study 2012: FAB branch meeting presentation
Platteville Pictures (from Stick)
Radiometer forward modeling results
Dallas Tornado forecasts and verification
OK Tornado at 21:03Z Apr. 13, 2012 forecasts and verification
OK Tornado on Apr. 14, 2012 forecasts and verification

Presentation to the Cambodian Visitor on 08/21/2012

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