Preliminary verification of MDSS ensemble models

These are comparisons of mesoscale model forecasts to observations of surface temperature, wind speed, and dewpoint. The LAPS group at FSL is running several weather forecasting models in support of FHWA's MDSS demonstration now underway in Iowa.  To see the model output, click here.  For precipitation verification, which was developed by the RTVS group at FSL, click here.  For a quick look at what we have in mind for this page in the future, click here.

MM5AVN

MM5ETA

MM5RUC

RAMSAVN

RAMSETA

WRFAVN

WRFETA

WRFRUC

In addition, we're running a data-denial experimental run which is identical to the MM5ETA setup.

These statistics are computed over the period from 1 February 2003 to the present. They are updated daily.

Don't use these verification results to compare different models until we set up our database queries so that statistics are computed only over cases where both/all models ran. It makes a big difference, especially in modest sample sizes like this.  Note:  the precipitation verification doesn't have this problem.

Paul Schultz
303 497-6997
schultz@fsl.noaa.gov